Skip to content

Posts tagged ‘2012’

24
Jan

200 Million iPads Update

UPDATE 2012-04-24: My March estimate of 11.8 million was accurate. I’ve added a link below and updated the image to reflect the change.

UPDATE 2012-08-01: My July estimate of 23.3 million was way off. Like Asymco says, “It’s perhaps unrealistic to expect 150% growth for more than one year.”

Back in September, I estimated that Apple would sell 200 million iPads by the end of 2012. It looks like I was a little too optimistic.

Apple just reported stellar quarterly results. However, iPad sales growth was not quite as strong as Apple’s initial sales seemed to indicate. Two years after introduction, the iPad is selling better than the iPhone did two years after its debut. But it looks like it may take one extra quarter for Apple to hit 200 million iPads.

Actual Results

Estimated iPad sales through 2012

Estimated Results

  • Jan to Mar 2012: 11.8 million (this was accurate)
  • Apr to Jun 2012: 23.3 million (actual amount was 17.0 million)
  • Jul to Sep 2012: 28.0 million
  • Oct to Dec 2012: 38.9 million
  • Jan to Mar 2013: 29.8 million (was 29.9 due to rounding differences)

Disclosure: I own AAPL stock.

16
Sep

200 Million iPads

About a month ago, I mentioned in a meeting at work (and later tweeted) that I believed Apple would sell about 200 million iPads by the end of 2012. Brief awkward silence. Then I was asked to send out the details of how I’d arrived at that number.

Honestly, at that point, I’d just eyeballed the sales trends. As I opened up a spreadsheet, I really hoped my estimate would hold up. :)

The first iPad went on sale on April 3, 2010. Here are Apple’s official iPad sales numbers:

At this point, we only have one year-over-year growth number for comparison. That’s fairly weak evidence on which to predict the future. But this is just for fun and games, right?

Assuming that the growth rate remains consistent, here is what iPad sales will look like:

  • Jul to Sep 2011: 11.8 million (actual result was 11.1 million)
  • Oct to Dec 2011: 20.7 million (actual result was 15.4 million)
  • Jan to Mar 2012: 13.2 million
  • Apr to Jun 2012: 26.1 million
  • Jul to Sep 2012: 33.3 million
  • Oct to Dec 2012: 58.4 million

Estimated iPad sales through 2012

192 million iPads by the end of 2012. Apple is selling every iPad they can make so these numbers may be limited by Apple’s ability to meet demand.

Put another way, here are the yearly totals:

  • 2010: 14.8 million
  • 2011: 46.4 million (actual result was 40.1 million)
  • 2012: 131.0 million

That’s the beginning of a very fast growth curve. There are a few others who agree.

Apple will report their next financial results in mid-October. Then we’ll have two data points.

Disclosure: I now own some AAPL stock.