200 Million iPads Update
UPDATE 2012-04-24: My estimate for this last quarter of 11.8 million was accurate. I’ve added a link below and updated the image to reflect the change.
Back in September, I estimated that Apple would sell 200 million iPads by the end of 2012. It looks like I was a little too optimistic.
Apple just reported stellar quarterly results. However, iPad sales growth was not quite as strong as Apple’s initial sales seemed to indicate. Two years after introduction, the iPad is selling better than the iPhone did two years after its debut. But it looks like it may take one extra quarter for Apple to hit 200 million iPads.
Actual Results
- Apr to Jun 2010: 3.27 million
- Jul to Sep 2010: 4.19 million
- Oct to Dec 2010: 7.33 million
- Jan to Mar 2011: 4.69 million
- Apr to Jun 2011: 9.25 million
- Jul to Sep 2011: 11.1 million
- Oct to Dec 2011: 15.4 million
Estimated Results
- Jan to Mar 2012: 11.8 million (this was accurate)
- Apr to Jun 2012: 23.3 million (was 23.4 due to rounding differences)
- Jul to Sep 2012: 28.0 million
- Oct to Dec 2012: 38.9 million
- Jan to Mar 2013: 29.8 million (was 29.9 due to rounding differences)
Disclosure: I own AAPL stock.
The First 100 Days of a Startup
Josh Coates, founder of Mozy and current CEO of Instructure, once taught a series of classes at BYU on high-tech startups. I jumped at the chance to audit his class.
One of the things Josh covered was what should happen during the first 100 days (14 weeks) of a high-tech startup.
Week 1 — Research and choose business
Week 2 — Build financial model and development plan
Week 3 — Build pitch with screenshots and practice
Week 4 — Interview law firm, staff and advisers
Week 5 — Incorporate and setup shop with office space and equipment
Week 6 — Initial documents, books, hires and cap table
Week 7 — Create website and logo (do a trademark search)
Week 8 — Identify 10 to 20 potential investors and study who else they invest in
Week 9 — Practice the pitch and setup meeting with the least important investor
Week 10 — Interview, build product, pitch again
Week 11 — Interview, build product, pitch again
Week 12 — Interview, build product, pitch again
Week 13 — Interview, build product, pitch again
Week 14 — Interview, build product, pitch again
He recommended interviewing one potential employee every day. Pitching to the least important investor first lets you have a chance to practice in a situation where making a mistake isn’t as damaging.
I first met Josh just after publication of an article he wrote on how many angel investors in Utah were doing it wrong. The article, entitled “Poison in the Well”, in addition to having a great title, was direct and clear in its criticism. It was one of the reasons I later applied to work at Mozy.
For anyone who knows him, I think “direct and clear criticism” is a good phrase to describe what it’s like to work for Josh. His class was no exception. It was a great chance to learn from someone who’s been there and done it successfully.
Four Stages of the Game
Seth Godin says there are four stages to every “game” that we play in life. These are projects and activities in which we are involved. We even use game-like labels for some of these: the dating game, the corporate ladder, the rat race. I’d never before thought of them directly as games that could be played.
- You don’t even realize there’s a game.
- You start getting involved and it feels like a matter of life or death.
- You realize that it’s a game and you play it with strategy.
- You get bored with the game, because you’ve seen it before.
I’ve read Seth’s short article several times and wondered about myself. I’ve started to recognize these stages in the games that I “play” at work and home. Looking back, I see myself mostly in stage two: caring a lot about the outcome and stressing that things aren’t going well.
More recently, I see myself being able to step into stage three at times: not taking things so personally, being willing to change my behavior and conversation to be more effective. Stage three is certainly less stressful.
Occasionally, I’ve hit stage four and moved on. I felt like I’d learned all that I would and lost interest in continuing. Not giving up in frustration. More like losing interest in continuing to do something at which I already excelled.
Mostly, I wish for more than this. I’d love the passion and enthusiasm of stage two with the lower stress of stage three in a game that avoids the boredom of stage four. Marriage and family can be this way. Work has the potential as well, though the nature of corporations seems to work against it at times.
200 Million iPads
About a month ago, I mentioned in a meeting at work (and later tweeted) that I believed Apple would sell about 200 million iPads by the end of 2012. Brief awkward silence. Then I was asked to send out the details of how I’d arrived at that number.
Honestly, at that point, I’d just eyeballed the sales trends. As I opened up a spreadsheet, I really hoped my estimate would hold up. :)
The first iPad went on sale on April 3, 2010. Here are Apple’s official iPad sales numbers:
- Apr to Jun 2010: 3.27 million
- Jul to Sep 2010: 4.19 million
- Oct to Dec 2010: 7.33 million
- Jan to Mar 2011: 4.69 million
- Apr to Jun 2011: 9.25 million
At this point, we only have one year-over-year growth number for comparison. That’s fairly weak evidence on which to predict the future. But this is just for fun and games, right?
Assuming that the growth rate remains consistent, here is what iPad sales will look like:
- Jul to Sep 2011: 11.8 million (actual result was 11.1 million)
- Oct to Dec 2011: 20.7 million (actual result was 15.4 million)
- Jan to Mar 2012: 13.2 million
- Apr to Jun 2012: 26.1 million
- Jul to Sep 2012: 33.3 million
- Oct to Dec 2012: 58.4 million
192 million iPads by the end of 2012. Apple is selling every iPad they can make so these numbers may be limited by Apple’s ability to meet demand.
Put another way, here are the yearly totals:
- 2010: 14.8 million
- 2011: 46.4 million (actual result was 40.1 million)
- 2012: 131.0 million
That’s the beginning of a very fast growth curve. There are a few others who agree.
Apple will report their next financial results in mid-October. Then we’ll have two data points.
Disclosure: I now own some AAPL stock.
Ron Paul for President (Again)
Ron Paul is again running for president. This short video of Ron Paul explaining his foreign policy views is exactly why we need him as president. No other candidate in either party has the integrity and vision to advocate for peace and liberty over war and killing.
On another note, if you are familiar with LDS culture I really recommend this hilarious set of jokes about “How Mormon is Mitt Romney”. The jokes could be equally applied to any LDS presidential candidate. :)
Quote: Helen Keller
Security is mostly a superstition. It does not exist in nature, nor do the children of men as a whole experience it. Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than outright exposure. Life is either a daring adventure, or nothing.
Learning to ride a motorcycle, working yourself out of a job, asking someone you don’t know out on a date, traveling overseas, braving TSA agents at the airport — there’s quite a rush to living life as a daring adventure.